The Rocket Classic - Why did they drop the word "Mortgage?" It's weird.
Now everybody from the 313....
Just a note that I likely won’t be sending a bets newsletter next week as I will: 1) Be in Scotland playing golf, and 2) Be focusing on Week 1 of the Fantasy Golf World Championship instead with any free time not drinking Scotch or hacking away. There’s a chance that I put some notes and thoughts together on my flight and send out a Ryder Cup Preview instead.
DETROIT! This event is special because it’s one of my favorite calls of all time: the “Dear Rickie, it’s Time” headline and win from a couple of years ago. This was a prime example of how this course works, as it did not matter that Rickie was hitting his winning approach from nowhere near the fairway. I’m also equally excited because this course/event is giving me serious Houston Open vibes, which was a week where we completely crushed earlier this season. You’re going to hear it a lot this week in Detroit, but bomb and gauge will be effective due to the non-penal rough and wide open set up.
The Course/Field:
Detroit Golf Club
Par 72 / 7,370 Yards
156 Golfers / Top 65 and Ties Cut
Bent/POA Greens
Plenty of sand, not much water
The Stats:
SG/A
SG/OTT
Proximity 105-150
SG/Par 5
Opps Gained
Others: SG/P, Driving Distance
The BETS:
Ben Griffin 20/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (1U):
Damn does this number suck, but when it comes down to it, we are looking at a potential USA Ryder Cup team member here in a weak field event. Talent-wise, we obviously have Kawa (just switched caddies AGAIN), Deki (I kind of feel like I saw something last week, but can’t get there quite yet), and Cantplay (he should step it up sometime before Bethpage), but Griffin is arguably the better golfer than at least 2 of those right now. He’s #1 in the modeling this week (if you’re into that kind of thing). 2nd in SG/BS, 5th in SG/ Par 5, 5th in SG/P, 8th in SG/A and 12th in SG/OTT.
Cameron Young 28/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (1U):
Almost missed a Tommy breakthrough (I would dive into this, but it makes me to sad to re-experience it in my brain. Seriously, the hooligans at Bethpage definitely don’t need any more ammo for the heckling…). Not missing a Cam breakthrough. This is the one. A tee to green machine when he wants to be, and surprisingly the best putter in the field at the moment. He continues to trend up and he has the distance and iron abilities to bomb and gauge this one. He always might be “a reach” to win, but also has the potential to boat race this tourney based on current form and strength of field. 6th here last year (in BAD form) and 2nd in 2022 in his only other appearance. As stubborn as he seems in terms of listening to caddies, etc., he’s a hungry guy by nature, and like Captain Keegs last week (seriously, poor effin Tommy Lad), he’s ready to make his Ryder Cup statement.
Luke Clanton 33/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.75U):
Talent. Talent. Talent. His stats are positive across the board, and what strikes me the most is that he’s 6th in Opps Gained and 12th in Driving Distance (aka a perfect fit from what the touts are calling bomb and gauge this week). Also Top 25 in all the relevant proximity buckets. Huge chance to use that secret sauce to go low this week.
Davis Thompson 40/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.75U):
He was part of my Houston Open week (God, what a stressful rollercoaster he was that week), so why not this week? He’s been cold and streaky, but had his BEST iron week in a long time last week with over 5 strokes gained on approach. I looked at his entire (short) career, and any time he has spiked out of a slump with his irons, he backed it up at least a little the following week. So they come in at least twos each time. And if course history means anything to you, he was a runner up last year..
MIN WOO LEE 50/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.75U):
If Min Woo is becoming a “play Min Woo at Min Woo courses” guy, then this math will math very well. Last time we had this hunch, he gave me my best week of all time in terms of betting + DFS. The difference now? Scottie was actually in that field. No true villains this week. AND these odds are better than last time around. Min Woo has been pretty cold as of late, so we are just rolling with the let him cook on chef courses theory.
Victor Perez 66/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.5U):
Honestly might be one of my favorite DFS plays of all time, and makes for a great each way. He often contends at very low ownership, and his irons have the potential to be elite. He is averaging over 6 strokes gained on approach in his last 2 events, he’s a great ball striker, and he fills those proximity buckets fairly well.
Speaking of Vic’s consistency at the moment, 3-ball (more like free ball) Day 1 incoming!
Vic Perez +125 over Adam Hadwin and David Skinns (each of the latter 2 have been struggling lately, if we ignore Skinns outlier at the Canadian…). I swear, it’s free money..
Jake Knapp 80/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.25U):
Knapp time on a Knapp course. Bomb and gauge. He can probably play decent without his best irons this week. With his best irons? Serious threat. With his best putter? Serious threat. FRL 80/1 with 6 places bonus bet.
Michael Thorbjornsen 90/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.25U):
Ok, so I guess there’s a theme with young talent this week. This is a big swing on a guy who is coming back from injury. HOWEVER, he is barely an adult (23), and what are injuries when you are that young and that talented (multiple runner up finishes already on Tour)?! Dominates off the tee (4th in SG/OTT) and Top 10 in driving distance in the field. Similar to Knapp, if he finds the irons he could be dangerous. He has already said he feels just fine, and his caddy is actually Morikawa’s former caddy, a proven winner, so there’s that. FRL 80/1 with 6 places bonus bet.
Andrew Putnam 90/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.2U):
Going a little bit the other way with the formula for the week on this one (suck it, touts), but here’s a guy that can combine great irons with elite putting. Obviously the opportunities don’t matter if you can’t convert, and Putnam is someone who can, in buckets. He often gains 5+ on the field with the putter.
Alejandro Tosti 200/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U):
In case you didn’t know, I often play Tosti at Birdiefests. Last time I did it? The Houston Open and he almost won. 5th in Opportunities Gained, so don’t be surprised if you look at an early leaderboard and see him on fire. Tends to melt down with the putter, and on Sunday back 9s, so buyer beware… (but also, Tosti FRL 125/1 with 6 places)
And how bout a “to make the cut” parlay?
Knapp/Perez/Thorbjornsen +296
LET’S HAVE A WEEK!
-SK