The Scottish Open: Take me back to North Berwick!!
Pre-Major Links Fun Time
Fresh off of an epic golf trip to Scotland, WE. ARE. BACK. In preparation for this week, many of our favorite PGA players are currently doing exactly what we, a couple of 40ish year olds, were doing last week - putzing around at North Berwick Golf Club, which is a mile down the road from The Renaissance Club and where we stayed for 2 nights. With Scotland’s gloriously late sundown at 10:30pm, we were sipping whisky and hitting ridiculous shots to get the true feel for Scottish golf, just like they are all doing this week according to their Instagrams. There were two really wonky holes at North Berwick. One of them has a wall running up the right side of the green, where the PGA pros like to lay up, and then try to putt through the opening in the wall to the green (video 1 below). The other is a crazy valley in the middle of the 16th green that makes it near impossible to get to the pin, whether you’re off the green trying to stick the correct upper tier, or if you’re putting from the opposite tier of the green (Facebook link below, boomer social media sites don’t embed to Substack…).
…Back to The Renaissance Club. Some will say this is not really a traditional Scottish Links course at all. But I don’t really care because it sure as hell will play like one. Like most Scottish courses, you will need to stay out of these fairway bunkers. They are NOT forgiving. Find yourself with a bad lie against a nice sandy wall, and you’re already down a stroke for the hole. The around the green play also allows you to get really creative, which is my favorite part about links golf. You’ll see all sorts of chips and punches with random clubs. I really really really wanted to get to Bobby Mac this week, but he’s being priced as an elite and I just can’t get there.
And in case you were wondering, my journey at the Fantasy World Golf Championship has come to an end last week. I didn’t win the Milly, but I will still gladly take my winnings and run. We’ll get them next year!
The Course/Field
The Renaissance Club
Par 70 / 7,237 yards
156 golfers / Top 65 and Ties to make the cut
Fescue greens!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very non penal rough
WEATHER: This is Scotland. Weather will weather, and it can change on a DIME. There’s always a chance of rain and wind. Don’t put any stock into any forecast until the morning of any round, at the bare minimum.
The Stats
SG/A
SG/OTT
SG/Par 5
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Others: Par 3s 200+, Proximity 175+, BOB Gained, SG/ARG
The BETS:
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1 with 6 places each way (1U)
Prepare yourselves for a massive LOSER CARD! Tommy Lad is back on European Soil. This was my last bet in of the week (came very close to doubling down on my next pick instead) and hopefully these are the magic beans he needs to overcome his loser status and get that monkey off his back. Yes, that loss a few weeks ago was devastating. But the comeback is always greater than the setback. Right? RIGHT?! Any time I want to feel better about Tommy I just watch this video of his son.
Collin Morikawa 25/1 with 6 places each way (1U)
Ok - I get it. This guy can’t putt for shit. Another loser? Me thinks not. Collin has 2 Majors to his name. To further complicate things, he is going through caddies like water (is that a saying?). But I cannot and will not ignore what he is doing with his irons. He gained 11.5 on approach at the US Open and 7.4 last time out at the Rocket Mortgage. And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that if he can just somehow, for the love of all things golf, put together an AVERAGE putting week, then he will contend 10000%. His worst putting has also been on these quicker surfaces, so maybe he finds something in Scotland. Again, let’s not forget he is a 2 time Major winner, INCLUDING an Open Championship on similar surfaces. Also finished 4th here last year while he was in bad form…. They are also offering the places, so I’ll take them (while sacrificing them with a few of my other bets). Let’s channel that positive UK juju back for him.
Viktor Hovland 40/1 (.75U)
Come on! If he plays, I would assume he is feeling good, and if he’s feeling good, he’s a course fit here. 1st in Proximity from 175-200 and Par 3s over 200 yards. 2nd in SG/A. 4th in SG/T2G. 6th in BOB Gained. 7th in SG/BS. 40 is a wild number for this guy, and I’m assuming it’s solely because of the injury concerns. I’m willing to take this risk.
Matt Fitzpatrick 45/1 (.75U)
It’s been a while, but this isn’t even a sneaky pick this week. Not many guys are trending up the way Matty Fitz is at the moment. 2 Top 20s in a row and great irons in 5 of his last 7 events. I think he has the correct all around game to fight this week, so let’s see what happens. He has made the cut in every single major this season, and you better believe he’s gunning for a 4th next week. Another former Major winner.
Ryan Fox 65/1 (.4U)
This is a gut play for the week, but here’s a guy coming off of a win from just a short month ago. He can smash the ball off the tee, and his irons had peaked in early June. If he kept any of that lightning in a bottle, he can make some noise in Scotland. He has always seemed to play well over in Europe.
Si Woo Kim 80/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.3U)
Gained 6.3 with his irons at the JD last week, and 4.5 more around the greens. I’ll take that game all day. 9 straight cuts proves that he has overcome any of his true volatility issues, and the win equity is actually there. 2nd in Proximity from 175-200, 4th on Par 3s over 200 yards, 12th in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in SG/T2G. This is a great golfer at a great price.
Nicolai Hojgaard 90/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.25U)
My guy Nicolai. He was strug city earlier this season, but you better believe he’s getting ready to make his Ryder Cup push at the appropriate time. Had his best iron week in months at the Rocket Mortgage a couple of weeks ago, and is obviously very familiar with European golf courses. He finished 6th here two short years ago. Top 10 distance in this field, so if he can get the irons to cooperate this week, there’s a winning formula in here. This is also where I’m putting my FRL $$ at 90/1 (with 6 places as well).
Victor Perez 100/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.2U)
My other guy Vic screwed me last week. Time for him to redeem himself. The approach numbers have been solid, and now that he’s playing back in Europe, I’m hoping for a little spark for the Frenchie.
Aldrich Potgieter 125/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U)
If the formula is bomb and gauge, then these odds are spicy. If someone can coach this kid with the irons and short game, he will have the Bryson type cheat code on the next level on the PGA tour.
Jacob Bridgeman 150/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U)
Having some fun with the long shots this week, and what better way to do it than take a guy who has shown glimpses and is coming off of a 5th place at the John Deere?
Then there are three guys that are absolutely tearing it up in Europe these days (FRL e/w sprinkles on these 3 as well):
Kristoffer Reitan 125/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U)
4th, 46th, 13th, 2nd, 1st, 33rd, 2nd in his last 7 starts. He won the Junior World Cup with fellow Norwegian VIKTOR HOVLAND back in 2014. That’s enough for me.
Francesco Laporta 125/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U)
7th, 10th, 7th, 27th, 11th in his last 5. He’s an older Italian who is coming into form. I like him more as a DFS play and a Top 20 flier.
Martin Couvra 200/1 with 6 places each way 1/5 (.1U)
MC, 2nd, 8th, MC, 1st, 5th in his last 6. Volatile, but sometimes that can be fun. He’s still only 22 and has the potential to be a star.
And a Top 20 Parlay for the week:
Collin/Fleetwood/Hovland/Nicolai/Couvra +23,626. Playing the 3 way combos as well.
Good luck!
-SK